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Analysis: 'Baghdad skyline in sight'
By Martin Walker
UPI Chief International Correspondent
From the International Desk
Published 4/3/2003 3:30 AM
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Coalition officials in the region prefer, United Press International has learned, to copy the "softly-softly" British tactics in Iraq's second city of Basra. The British have now spent 12 days running a gentle siege that never sealed off the city, allows civilians and food to come and go (after being searched), and worked to restore water and power supplies. At the same time, with raids and targeted air and artillery strikes, the British picked away at the command posts and headquarters of the Baath Party, the fedayeen and the remaining military forces inside the city.

"We are deliberately not taking the city yet, but we are not destroying it either � and we are starting to get more and more support and information from the civilian population," said British spokesman Group Captain Al Lockwood. "In the end, they are what this war is all about."

The alternative to the British method is for a full-scale assault on Baghdad "on the run," as the Marines and 3rd Infantry use the momentum of the stunning advances in the past 48 hours and take advantage of Iraqi disorganization. This option is apparently being urged by Pentagon officials.

The decision, which must be taken soon, may hinge on the intelligence estimates of the power structure inside Baghdad. If Saddam Hussein and his general staff remain alive and in command of their defenses, a full-scale assault could be slow, bloody and costly in civilian casualties.

There is as yet no certainty about Saddam's health or location, though Kuwait is filled with rumors that high-ranking Iraqis, including members of Saddam's family, have been seen in the neighboring Syrian capital of Damascus. Coalition intelligence officers maintain, however, they see little sign of a coherent Iraqi command system.

The siege-or-assault decision, which also implies important political decisions in Washington about whether or not to establish an interim governing authority for Iraq outside a besieged capital, cannot be delayed long.

On the western side of Baghdad, advance units of the U.S. 3rd division pushed to within artillery range of the Iraqi capital Thursday morning, after seizing a key double bridge across the Euphrates south of Fallujah Wednesday.

One span of the double bridge, carrying the main six-lane auto route west from Baghdad toward Jordan and Syria, was destroyed. But the other span withstood desperate Iraqi artillery fire, and U.S. combat engineers crossed the river under fire in rubber boats to dismantle the demolition wires. That left the 3rd division with a three-lane highway to Baghdad.

On the eastern side of Baghdad, the Marines advancing up the Tigris were less than 30 miles from Baghdad after capturing a key bridge at al-Numaniya, about 15 miles north of Kut. By Thursday morning, U.S. combat helicopters were operating from the captured al-Numaniya air base.

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