MSNBC - Grim Numbers
The poll results, which have not been released publicly but were obtained by NEWSWEEK, indicate that the April publication of photos depicting the abuse of Iraqi prisoners at Abu Ghraib prison accelerated a long-term decline in support for the U.S. occupation. Of the Iraqis surveyed, 71 percent said they had been surprised by the Abu Ghraib revelations. Most, however, said they now believe the abuses were widespread. Fifty-four percent agreed with the statement that “all Americans behave this way,” and 61 percent said they believed no one would be punished for the abuses. A CPA spokesman said Tuesday that he had not yet examined the numbers.
Taken from May 14 to May 23, the survey also shows a sharp rise in the popularity of radical Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, with 81 percent saying they had either a better or much better or better opinion of him than they did three months earlier. Sadr’s Al Mahdi Army has been engaged in a bloody standoff with U.S. forces in the cities of Kufa and Najaf for more than two months. His popularity among leading Iraqi public figures is exceeded only by that of another Shiite cleric, Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, who was “strongly supported” by 51 percent of Iraqis and “somewhat supported” by another 19 percent.
The news for the newly designated Iraqi prime minister, Iyad Allawi, was not as good. While the poll was taken just before he was named to head the new interim government, 61 percent said they either strongly oppose or somewhat oppose Allawi, a former exile once backed by the CIA. Only 23 percent said they somewhat support or strongly support him.
On the positive side, the poll showed that 63 percent of Iraqis believe that installing the interim Iraqi government will make things “better” for Iraq, with only 15 percent saying thing will be worse. The survey also indicated that most Iraqis display continuing confidence in the new Iraqi police and army.
The poll reflects an inexorable decline in support for the U.S. occupation since the fall of Baghdad over a year ago. In November 2003, 47 percent of those surveyed still expressed confidence in the CPA; those figures plummeted to 9 percent in April and 11 percent in May. In the latest survey, 81 percent of Iraqis also expressed “no confidence” in Coalition forces. Seventy-eight percent expressed the same grim opinion of the outgoing CPA, which is slated to dissolve when sovereignty is handed over to the interim government on June 30. The survey does show a marginal uptick in support for the CPA and Coalition forces since April, but that small increase falls within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percent. Fifty-seven percent of those surveyed also expressed no confidence in the United Nations.
The survey underlines just how much Coalition forces, which have struggled unsuccessfully to crush an insurgency that has targeted increasing numbers of Iraqis, as well as power lines and other facilities, seem to have lost the faith of most Iraqis. In November 2003, just 11 percent of Iraqis said they would feel “more safe” if Coalition forces left immediately; that number rose to 28 percent in January. Today 55 percent of Iraqis say they would feel safer if Coalition forces departed right away, even though the Bush administration has indicated they would stay on at least until the Iraqi elections in 2005. A whopping 69 percent also want the CPA to play no role at all in the selection of an independent election commission.
The poll consisted of face-to-face interviews with 1,093 people selected randomly in six Iraqi cities and towns: Baghdad, Basra, Mosul, Hillah, Diwaniyah and Baquba. It was conducted by the Independent Institute for Administration and Civil Society Studies, a CPA-sponsored Iraqi survey group.
The poll results, which have not been released publicly but were obtained by NEWSWEEK, indicate that the April publication of photos depicting the abuse of Iraqi prisoners at Abu Ghraib prison accelerated a long-term decline in support for the U.S. occupation. Of the Iraqis surveyed, 71 percent said they had been surprised by the Abu Ghraib revelations. Most, however, said they now believe the abuses were widespread. Fifty-four percent agreed with the statement that “all Americans behave this way,” and 61 percent said they believed no one would be punished for the abuses. A CPA spokesman said Tuesday that he had not yet examined the numbers.
Taken from May 14 to May 23, the survey also shows a sharp rise in the popularity of radical Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, with 81 percent saying they had either a better or much better or better opinion of him than they did three months earlier. Sadr’s Al Mahdi Army has been engaged in a bloody standoff with U.S. forces in the cities of Kufa and Najaf for more than two months. His popularity among leading Iraqi public figures is exceeded only by that of another Shiite cleric, Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, who was “strongly supported” by 51 percent of Iraqis and “somewhat supported” by another 19 percent.
The news for the newly designated Iraqi prime minister, Iyad Allawi, was not as good. While the poll was taken just before he was named to head the new interim government, 61 percent said they either strongly oppose or somewhat oppose Allawi, a former exile once backed by the CIA. Only 23 percent said they somewhat support or strongly support him.
On the positive side, the poll showed that 63 percent of Iraqis believe that installing the interim Iraqi government will make things “better” for Iraq, with only 15 percent saying thing will be worse. The survey also indicated that most Iraqis display continuing confidence in the new Iraqi police and army.
The poll reflects an inexorable decline in support for the U.S. occupation since the fall of Baghdad over a year ago. In November 2003, 47 percent of those surveyed still expressed confidence in the CPA; those figures plummeted to 9 percent in April and 11 percent in May. In the latest survey, 81 percent of Iraqis also expressed “no confidence” in Coalition forces. Seventy-eight percent expressed the same grim opinion of the outgoing CPA, which is slated to dissolve when sovereignty is handed over to the interim government on June 30. The survey does show a marginal uptick in support for the CPA and Coalition forces since April, but that small increase falls within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percent. Fifty-seven percent of those surveyed also expressed no confidence in the United Nations.
The survey underlines just how much Coalition forces, which have struggled unsuccessfully to crush an insurgency that has targeted increasing numbers of Iraqis, as well as power lines and other facilities, seem to have lost the faith of most Iraqis. In November 2003, just 11 percent of Iraqis said they would feel “more safe” if Coalition forces left immediately; that number rose to 28 percent in January. Today 55 percent of Iraqis say they would feel safer if Coalition forces departed right away, even though the Bush administration has indicated they would stay on at least until the Iraqi elections in 2005. A whopping 69 percent also want the CPA to play no role at all in the selection of an independent election commission.
The poll consisted of face-to-face interviews with 1,093 people selected randomly in six Iraqi cities and towns: Baghdad, Basra, Mosul, Hillah, Diwaniyah and Baquba. It was conducted by the Independent Institute for Administration and Civil Society Studies, a CPA-sponsored Iraqi survey group.
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