"Will Bush the Younger be a one-term president?:
The accompanying chart displays the relationship between the percent of GNP spent by the federal government, on the one hand, and the popular vote for president over the last 33 elections, beginning with the 1872 contest, on the other. White dots mark those years when the incumbent party's ticket received a majority of the two-party vote and black dots when it did not.
Observe that changes in the slope of the line connecting the dots follow a discernable pattern. In 18 of 22 cases a clockwise turn in the line, representing a cut in spending or, alternatively, in its rate of growth (e.g., 1936, 1964), coincides with victory in the popular vote for the incumbents, either the president or his party's candidate. By contrast, in 9 out of 11 cases administrations under which spending accelerated relative to the previous term, described by counter-clockwise turns in the line, were defeated."
The accompanying chart displays the relationship between the percent of GNP spent by the federal government, on the one hand, and the popular vote for president over the last 33 elections, beginning with the 1872 contest, on the other. White dots mark those years when the incumbent party's ticket received a majority of the two-party vote and black dots when it did not.
Observe that changes in the slope of the line connecting the dots follow a discernable pattern. In 18 of 22 cases a clockwise turn in the line, representing a cut in spending or, alternatively, in its rate of growth (e.g., 1936, 1964), coincides with victory in the popular vote for the incumbents, either the president or his party's candidate. By contrast, in 9 out of 11 cases administrations under which spending accelerated relative to the previous term, described by counter-clockwise turns in the line, were defeated."
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