Procrastination Theories:
"Discounted Expectancy Theory
This theory represents the very cutting edge of motivational research. It suggests that the reasons why people make any decision can be largely represented by the following equation:
utility = Expectancy[E] times Value[V]/Sensitivity to delay[G] times Delay until reward[D]
Utility indicates preference for a course of action. Naturally, the higher the utility, the greater the preference. On the top of the equation, the numerator, we have two variables: Expectancy (E) and Value (V). Expectancy refers to the odds or chance of an outcome occurring while Value refers to how rewarding that outcome is. Naturally, we would like to choose pursuits that give us a good chance of having a pleasing outcome. On the bottom of the equation, the denominator, we also have two variables. G refers to the subject’s sensitivity to delay. The larger G is, the greater is the sensitivity. Finally, D represents Delay, which indicates how long, on average, one must wait to receive the payout. Since delay is in the denominator of the equation, the longer the delay, the less valued the course of action is perceived.
How does this theory related to procrastination? Essentially, we are constantly beset with making decisions among various courses of action. Should we go to the gym or watch TV? Should I make dinner or order-in? Discounted Utility Theory suggests, unsurprisingly, that we are more likely to pursue goals or tasks that are pleasurable and that we are likely to attain. Consequently, we are more likely to put off, to procrastinate, difficult tasks with lackluster qualities.
Even more important regarding procrastination is the effects of delay. We like our rewards not only to be large but also to be immediate. Consequently, we will most likely procrastinate any tasks that are unpleasant in the present and offer recompense only in the distant future. In other words, we would be more likely to put off higher priority tasks if there are options available that lead to more immediate rewards with more remote costs. We tend to call such options temptations."
[...]
Evaluation
There is an extremely strong evidence that indicates that this is why we procrastinate:
**First, procrastination is strongly associated with expectancy. Specifically, those people with low self-efficacy, that is feelings of competence, are more likely to procrastinate.
**Second, procrastination is strongly associated with value of the tasks. The more unpleasant people report a task, the more likely they are to put it off. Also, those people low in need for achievement, that is how much pleasure they get from achieving, are more likely to procrastinate.
**Third, procrastination is strongly associated with sensitivity to delay (i.e., G ). Specifically, people who are more distractible, impulsive, and have less self-control tend to procrastinate more.
**Fourth, procrastination is strongly associated with time delay. The closer we are to realizing a goal, the harder we work at it.
**Fifth, Discounted Utility Theory predicts an intention-action gap, where we intend to work but fail to act on these intentions. As expected. procrastinators tend not to act on their intentions.
**Sixth, observed behavior matches what is predicted by Discounted Utility Theory.
Of note, Discounted Utility Theory suggests that many of the previous theories were right, but only in part. They deal with one piece of the puzzle, task aversiveness, and only for the small percentage of people that suffer from the specific condition. For example, consider rebelliousness. If you are a rebellious individual and feel some work is foisted upon you, then you likely also will find it more aversive. Since anything that makes work more unpleasant increases the likelihood of procrastination, rebelliousness would indeed be one contributor to procrastination, though in general its contribution is very small"
The above is from Dr. Pier Steel's site. This is how he describes his new theory of procrastination, which he created after reviewing every study of procrastination published. He mentions other theories and describes the problems with each. Many good procrastination resources there.
"Discounted Expectancy Theory
This theory represents the very cutting edge of motivational research. It suggests that the reasons why people make any decision can be largely represented by the following equation:
utility = Expectancy[E] times Value[V]/Sensitivity to delay[G] times Delay until reward[D]
Utility indicates preference for a course of action. Naturally, the higher the utility, the greater the preference. On the top of the equation, the numerator, we have two variables: Expectancy (E) and Value (V). Expectancy refers to the odds or chance of an outcome occurring while Value refers to how rewarding that outcome is. Naturally, we would like to choose pursuits that give us a good chance of having a pleasing outcome. On the bottom of the equation, the denominator, we also have two variables. G refers to the subject’s sensitivity to delay. The larger G is, the greater is the sensitivity. Finally, D represents Delay, which indicates how long, on average, one must wait to receive the payout. Since delay is in the denominator of the equation, the longer the delay, the less valued the course of action is perceived.
How does this theory related to procrastination? Essentially, we are constantly beset with making decisions among various courses of action. Should we go to the gym or watch TV? Should I make dinner or order-in? Discounted Utility Theory suggests, unsurprisingly, that we are more likely to pursue goals or tasks that are pleasurable and that we are likely to attain. Consequently, we are more likely to put off, to procrastinate, difficult tasks with lackluster qualities.
Even more important regarding procrastination is the effects of delay. We like our rewards not only to be large but also to be immediate. Consequently, we will most likely procrastinate any tasks that are unpleasant in the present and offer recompense only in the distant future. In other words, we would be more likely to put off higher priority tasks if there are options available that lead to more immediate rewards with more remote costs. We tend to call such options temptations."
[...]
Evaluation
There is an extremely strong evidence that indicates that this is why we procrastinate:
**First, procrastination is strongly associated with expectancy. Specifically, those people with low self-efficacy, that is feelings of competence, are more likely to procrastinate.
**Second, procrastination is strongly associated with value of the tasks. The more unpleasant people report a task, the more likely they are to put it off. Also, those people low in need for achievement, that is how much pleasure they get from achieving, are more likely to procrastinate.
**Third, procrastination is strongly associated with sensitivity to delay (i.e., G ). Specifically, people who are more distractible, impulsive, and have less self-control tend to procrastinate more.
**Fourth, procrastination is strongly associated with time delay. The closer we are to realizing a goal, the harder we work at it.
**Fifth, Discounted Utility Theory predicts an intention-action gap, where we intend to work but fail to act on these intentions. As expected. procrastinators tend not to act on their intentions.
**Sixth, observed behavior matches what is predicted by Discounted Utility Theory.
Of note, Discounted Utility Theory suggests that many of the previous theories were right, but only in part. They deal with one piece of the puzzle, task aversiveness, and only for the small percentage of people that suffer from the specific condition. For example, consider rebelliousness. If you are a rebellious individual and feel some work is foisted upon you, then you likely also will find it more aversive. Since anything that makes work more unpleasant increases the likelihood of procrastination, rebelliousness would indeed be one contributor to procrastination, though in general its contribution is very small"
The above is from Dr. Pier Steel's site. This is how he describes his new theory of procrastination, which he created after reviewing every study of procrastination published. He mentions other theories and describes the problems with each. Many good procrastination resources there.
Comments
Piers
The post is quoted from his paper on procrastination, where he takes all the studies done to date, and statistically combines them to evaluate what we really know about procrastination. He distills it into the equation above. As a lifelong procrastinator, I've been reading quite a bit about procrastination lately, and find his work very, very exciting!