The Daily Star - Opinion Articles - Keep your eye on the Cheney trip to Saudi Arabia
The Saudis appear to favor replacing the Maliki government, which they see as dominated by Iranian-backed Shiite religious parties. As an alternative, the Saudis are quietly backing former interim Prime Minister Iyad Allawi, a secular Shiite and ex-Baathist who has support among Iraqi Sunnis. Allawi's advisers say that his strategy is to exploit tensions within the Shiite religious alliance and form a new ruling coalition that would be made up of Sunnis, Kurds and secular Shiites. Allawi's camp believes he is close to having enough votes, thanks in part to Saudi political and financial support.
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The Bush administration appears to have little enthusiasm for an Allawi putsch, despite its frustration with Maliki. US officials fear that a change of government in Baghdad would only deepen the political disarray there and encourage new calls for withdrawal of American troops.
The ferment in the region is driven partly by the perception that US troops are on the way out, no matter what the Bush administration says. To dampen such speculation, Bush is said to have told the Saudis that America will not withdraw from Iraq during his presidency. "That gives us 18 months to plan," said one Saudi source.
The heart of the US-Saudi alliance is a new effort to combat Iran and its proxies in the Arab world. This began after last summer's war in Lebanon between Israel and the Iranian-backed Shiite militia, Hizbullah. Working closely with the United States, the Saudis began pumping money to Lebanese Sunni, Christian and Druze political groups that could counter Hizbullah's influence. The Saudis and Americans also cooperated in aiding Lebanon's Internal Security Forces, the national police that effectively reports to the Sunni prime minister, Fouad Siniora. Saudi-American cooperation against Iran has also extended to Yemen, where they have jointly assisted the Yemeni government in cracking down on an Iranian-funded group linked to followers of Shiite cleric Hussein al-Houthi, who was killed in 2004.
A final topic that's likely to be on Cheney's agenda is Syria. The Saudis support the administration's new effort, launched last week by Rice, to seek Syrian help in stabilizing Iraq. Indeed, the Saudis began moving to ease tensions with Syria at the March Arab League summit, after Syrian President Bashar al-Assad privately apologized to King Abdullah for calling him and other Sunni Arab leaders "half-men" because they didn't assist Hizbullah during the Lebanon war. US officials believe, however, that the Saudis are continuing their contacts with Syrian opposition groups.
Saudi Arabia once conducted its political machinations behind a veil, quietly doling out cash in an effort to buy peace. Perhaps the worst mistake made by Iran's firebrand President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is that he frightened the Saudis into abandoning their traditional reticence- and into secret strategy councils with the hard-nosed Cheney.
The Saudis appear to favor replacing the Maliki government, which they see as dominated by Iranian-backed Shiite religious parties. As an alternative, the Saudis are quietly backing former interim Prime Minister Iyad Allawi, a secular Shiite and ex-Baathist who has support among Iraqi Sunnis. Allawi's advisers say that his strategy is to exploit tensions within the Shiite religious alliance and form a new ruling coalition that would be made up of Sunnis, Kurds and secular Shiites. Allawi's camp believes he is close to having enough votes, thanks in part to Saudi political and financial support.
http://www.dailystar.com.lb
The Bush administration appears to have little enthusiasm for an Allawi putsch, despite its frustration with Maliki. US officials fear that a change of government in Baghdad would only deepen the political disarray there and encourage new calls for withdrawal of American troops.
The ferment in the region is driven partly by the perception that US troops are on the way out, no matter what the Bush administration says. To dampen such speculation, Bush is said to have told the Saudis that America will not withdraw from Iraq during his presidency. "That gives us 18 months to plan," said one Saudi source.
The heart of the US-Saudi alliance is a new effort to combat Iran and its proxies in the Arab world. This began after last summer's war in Lebanon between Israel and the Iranian-backed Shiite militia, Hizbullah. Working closely with the United States, the Saudis began pumping money to Lebanese Sunni, Christian and Druze political groups that could counter Hizbullah's influence. The Saudis and Americans also cooperated in aiding Lebanon's Internal Security Forces, the national police that effectively reports to the Sunni prime minister, Fouad Siniora. Saudi-American cooperation against Iran has also extended to Yemen, where they have jointly assisted the Yemeni government in cracking down on an Iranian-funded group linked to followers of Shiite cleric Hussein al-Houthi, who was killed in 2004.
A final topic that's likely to be on Cheney's agenda is Syria. The Saudis support the administration's new effort, launched last week by Rice, to seek Syrian help in stabilizing Iraq. Indeed, the Saudis began moving to ease tensions with Syria at the March Arab League summit, after Syrian President Bashar al-Assad privately apologized to King Abdullah for calling him and other Sunni Arab leaders "half-men" because they didn't assist Hizbullah during the Lebanon war. US officials believe, however, that the Saudis are continuing their contacts with Syrian opposition groups.
Saudi Arabia once conducted its political machinations behind a veil, quietly doling out cash in an effort to buy peace. Perhaps the worst mistake made by Iran's firebrand President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is that he frightened the Saudis into abandoning their traditional reticence- and into secret strategy councils with the hard-nosed Cheney.
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